Wednesday, December 12, 2007

GOP Front-Runners Run Out of Wiggle Room

None of the GOP presidential hopefuls are supported above a level of about 23 percent according to polls released by New York Times and CBS News. Mitt Romney's dilemma typifies the party's dilemma. Romney, a Mormon, must get the religious extremist vote to get the nomination. If he gets it, he risks losing the White House. The GOP is now paying for having made a Faustian pact with religious right and other extremists.

The numbers come from a CBS story headlined: Huckabee Soars Into GOP's Top Tier.
(CBS) Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee's meteoric rise in the polls is not, it turns out, an Iowa-only phenomenon. According to a new CBS News/New York Times poll, the former Arkansas governor is running neck-and-neck with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the race for the support of GOP primary voters nationwide, and all the momentum is on Huckabee's side.

Huckabee was supported by 21 percent in the poll, up from a mere 4 percent in October, thanks largely to a swell in support from Christian conservatives. He trails Giuliani by only 1 percentage point - a statistically insignificant margin. While Huckabee's support has more than quintupled in the past two months, Giuliani has seen his fall by 7 percent.

--CBS News

Huckabee just pulled off a cart-wheeling flanking maneuver to strike at Romney's rear --the source of Romney's support. To be fair, Romney could not have done otherrwise. But with only 23 percent to work with, there is no chance that any Republican can find mainstream running room. That goes for Rudi Giuliani --equally insane by any standard.
While Giuliani and Huckabee led among GOP primary voters, Mitt Romney - seen as Huckabee's top rival for the support of Christian conservative voters - also saw his support increase slightly, from 12 percent in October to 16 percent now. Both John McCain and Fred Thompson have seen their support crumble. Thompson has seen the most dramatic drop, falling from 21 percent in October - good enough for second place - to 7 percent now, tying him with McCain for fourth place.

However, Republican primary voters, as a group, remain fluid, suggesting there is still room for movement in the GOP field.

--CBS News

Stuart Rothernberg, editor of the Rothernberg Political Report points out that none of the candidates have been able "to coalesce support behind him". Unless Rudi Giuliani turns over some rocks, it is unlikely he will find enough support to beat any Democrat. There is an explanation. Carl Jung stated that as much as thirty percent of any population consists of incipient psychos, presumably kept in check by a majority of some two-thirds.

Having accused the GOP of mass insanity on numerous occassions, I would venture that the GOP is down to its base of some 23 percent: nut cases, religious fanatics, and other right wing extremists, a GOP base that is 180 degrees out of phase with the rest of the populuation, the principles of our founding, common sense, decency. The fanatics represent the party's hard core which finds in George Bush's failures, his only successes. I am increasingly confident that sane folk will call them what they truly are. Abysmal, miserable failures.

The GOP will lose against any Democratic candidate because it is unprepared to condemn what Bush has done to the nation. No GOP candidate is prepared to tell the truth: George W. Bush is a traitor to the US and its Constitution. Nevertheless, this miserable excuse for a party should pay the price for having supported the overthrow of the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, and our every international obligation since George Washington.

There ought to be a price to be paid for having been criminal, stupid, and arrogant! Fuck the GOP!









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13 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think you need to go a step further. I think the correct phrase should be "fuck both parties". The GOP has been trending rightward for a long time and it can now be recognized as a fascist party, pure and simple. But the Dem leadership has been eagerly following the Pubs lead, walzing the nation into fascism, and melting into the GOP's arms at every opportunity. Really, the passion between the two parties is a beautiful thing to see. If only they'd get a room and stay there.

What we need is a Populist Progresive party to kick both the Dems and the GOP into the free fall of irrelevancy they have earned. One way or another, their policies are a recipe for free fall. The question is, does the nation follow them? I say no. I say we start a new party willing to address the issues that face us in a real way. It's been done before. It needs to be done now.

Unknown said...

Well, you are correct, fillip. No one, it seems, really gets it. But the "cowboy" had already given Demos hell in several previous articles. The GOP is long overdue a well-deserved excoriation. Stay tuned...there is more to be written about the GOPS who were and remain willfully complicit with George W. Bush.

As someone (damien?) pointed out on this forum recently, Democratic failures are sins of omission. GOPPERS' sins are sins of commission!

The Democrats are out-to-lunch; the GOP is a criminal conspiracy, a crime syndicate of robber barons, liars, and, in some cases, corporate murderers.

You are correct, we need a new populist progressive party that will address real issues. Given the state of media, we may be dreaming. The media is owned by GOPPERS. I need cite only one example: Clear Channel --a monster of Mayes' birthing. Not surprisingly, the Mayes empire had its beginnings with Wendall Mayes' KCRS in Midland, TX a pretentious backwater.

It's a chicken/egg problem. Until the people take back the media, nothing will get done. But until the Fairness Doctrine is restored the people have no hope of taking back the media.

Anonymous said...

I'm an atheist. Do I have the right to vote?

Christopher said...

“………Unless Rudi Giuliani turns over some rocks, it is unlikely he will find enough support to beat any Democrat……..”

“……….The GOP will lose against any Democratic candidate because it is unprepared to condemn what Bush has done to the nation………”

Would that these two statements were true.

The results of a recent poll (I don’t remember which) showed that in a contest between a generic Republican candidate and a generic Democratic one, the Democrat would win 50% to 35%. But if it was Hillary against Rudi, it would be Rudi who would win, although by a very thin margin. Obama would win against Rudi, but, again, by quite a small margin.

I think a candidate’s personal likeability is an important asset, even more than political philosophy. People like Huckabee personally, and he is the most likeable of all the GOP candidates. Hence his sharp rise in the GOP sweepstakes.

Hillary’s problem is she’s not likeable, and so the much more likeable Obama is catching up to her.

It’s probably true to say that people found George Bush more personally likeable than both his respective Democratic opponents in 2000 and 2004, and so he came out ahead both times – or at least got as many votes as he did, both times.

Think also about Ronald Reagan, who came across as far more folksy and amiable, - and therefore more likeable - than Carter or Mondale.

Likeability (like “Grease”) is the word.

Anonymous said...

And what of the US presidential candidates? Ron Paul is a Libertarian who wants to get rid of all government welfare programs. Rudolph Guiliani has a Saudi business partner who protected Osama bin Laden and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and a wife who always books two seats when traveling to Paris (one for her, one for her Louis Vuitton bag). His close friend and former NY police commissioner, Bernie Kerik, had ties to the Mafia. Guiliani's foreign policy is backed by Norman Podhoretz and involves killing everyone east of Beirut. Mike Huckabee is a Southern Baptist minister who believes the earth really is 6,000 years old and that the threat from "Islamofascism" is greater than that posed by Nazi Germany. Fred Thompson's close adviser has multiple convictions for drug trafficking (for which he has never served any jail time). Mitt Romney thinks that a dead parent is better than a gay parent, that Jesus Christ had his second coming in the USA, that none of his 5 military-age sons should serve in Iraq and that the US needs more Guantanamos. Duncan Hunter, friend of GOP stalwarts Tom Delay, Jack Abramoff and Randy Cunningham -- all convicted of corruption and taking bribes -- takes defense industry money but insists they aren't bribes. Hilary Clinton steadfastly commits to no specific policies except that the pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons is an acceptable US foreign policy. Obama and Edwards stand out but the rest are certifiably insane.Something for everyone.

Anonymous said...

Fuzzflash sez...

Goppers are split asunder by unelectables while Dems' HRC dogwhistles American bigots across the party divide.

Writes Tommy Edsell in today's Huffpo:

"In the Washington Post interview published Dec. 12, Shaheen(HRC's head-handler)said Obama's own willingness to discuss his past drug use would "open the door" for the GOP: "It'll be, 'When was the last time? Did you ever give drugs to anyone? Did you sell them to anyone?'....There are so many openings for Republican dirty tricks. It's hard to overcome.........

Elsewhere in the book Obama writes, "We were always playing on the white man's court . . . by the white man's rules . . . . If the principal, or the coach, or a teacher . . . wanted to spit in your face, he could, because he had the power and you didn't. . . . The only thing you could choose was withdrawal into a smaller and smaller coil of rage. And the final irony: should you refuse this defeat and lash out at your captors . . . they would have a name for that too. Paranoid. Militant. . . . Pot had helped, and booze; maybe a little blow when you could afford it."

Shorter HRC to Dems directly, and to America by proxy:
"You want the bitch with attitude who you know, or the jig junky who got a lucky break from the plantation?"
--------------------------------

"I'm an atheist. Do I have the right to vote?"

Yes you do, Dante, because even though you don't want him to be with you, god is an American, and he loves you, and he very much wants to be on your side. All you have to do is cease reasoning, Dante, place your thumb in your bum, your mind into neutral, then all will be revealed. Halleleuliah!!

Unknown said...

Christopher, you bring up an interesting point...

I think a candidate’s personal likeability is an important asset, even more than political philosophy. People like Huckabee personally, and he is the most likeable of all the GOP candidates. Hence his sharp rise in the GOP sweepstakes.

I should have said a generic Democrat as opposed to "any" Democrat. For example, if Hilary should run, I would be inclined to just sit it out. But, having said that, even Hilary is preferable to Giuliani who outclasses Hilary in the class of "lack of class".

Hillary’s problem is she’s not likeable, and so the much more likeable Obama is catching up to her.

I can't stand either one of them. Alas, the focus groups have infected both parties. But, again, the fact that there is no other viable choice than Democrats, a vote for either is preferable to anyone the GOP serves up. All to more reason to abolish the electoral college, abolish the absurd and endless system of boring primaries while adopting a "ranger voting" system for the direct election of the office of President. This is the only option consistent with the idea that only a popular elected "President" directly responsible to the people is an effective balance of legislative and judicial powers.

Instead of this founders' vision, we have an "executive" who is bought and paid for by the big corporations and the huge loopholes in campaign finance laws. In effect, the people have NO direct or effective representation in Washington at all. That is the source of all our woes. We are without voice.

Likeability (like “Grease”) is the word.

And it makes my skin crawl. On the otherhand, "likeability" can work against a candidate as it has, I think, in the case of John Edwards. Edwards, on the surface, should be leading the Democratic dream team. He is smart, articulate, has a record of suiing the hell out of big corporations and winning, and he waxed the floor with Dick Cheney in his debate with him. So --why is Edwards not at the head of the pack?

damien said...

And what of the US presidential candidates? Ron Paul is a Libertarian who wants to get rid of all government welfare programs. Rudolph Guiliani has a Saudi business partner who protected Osama bin Laden...

I remember well when even Houstonians of his own party would not take Ron Paul seriously. I was never a member of his "party" and I still don't take him seriously. His economic ideas are not merely outside the mainstream, they are a recipe for disaster. At one point, Paul wanted to restore the Gold Standard. It's way to late for that. There is not enough Gold in the world to back up US, indeed, Western indebtedness. A global "run on the bank" will simply wipe out Western Civilization as we know it. It will make the "Great Depression" look like a minor work slowdown.

Should a Ron Paul presidency declare that the US is back on the Gold Standard --guess what! Everyone will stampede Federal Offices hoping to me among the handful of "sooners" to get their gold before the whole damn thing collapses. I hesitate to write that now would be a good time to buy gold. But, honestly, I don't reach enough readers to provoke a "run on the bank" which would have only the effect of making those who current own gold even richer than they already are.

...god is an American, and he loves you, and he very much wants to be on your side.

And God used to be a Houston Oilers fan unless they played Pittsburgh when Terry Bradshaw was quarterback. God, I think, had something against Dan Pastorini.

Unknown said...

It is no coincidence that Ron Paul seems to be riding high. Paul was making waves back in Houston at about the same time Howard Ruff was making the talk show circuit to tout his books. Who remembers Howard Ruff, who, in the seventies, urged his newsletter readers to buy Gold and other metals? In effect, "dumping the dollar" for Gold.

I would like to say that Ruff is back, but he never really went away. Here is an excerpt from the blurbs for his latest book:

In the last bull market in the ‘70s, gold peaked out at $850 and silver at $50. If you were to adjust the price for the inflation of the intervening years, just to equal those levels, gold would have to go to $2,172 and silver to $125. That means that at today’s prices of $660 and $13 respectively, they are selling at a big discount.

Will they go that high? Higher, probably, because the factors that drove the metals in the ‘70s are back, and then some – monetary inflation, price inflation, the threat of war (terrorism), the falling dollar, and monumental government deficits, how about $200 silver and $3,000 gold! Very possible, even likely


The worst effect that Paul might have now would consist of his imminent election. In anticipation of his Presidency, holders of dollars world wide would convert them immediately.

Anonymous said...

I think you answered your own question as to why Edwards isn't leading the field of Dems in the Silly Season this go-around.

Len Hart said:
"He is smart, articulate, has a record of suiing the hell out of big corporations and winning, and he waxed the floor with Dick Cheney in his debate with him."

Big Money will never let a guy with a track record like Edwards has get into the White House.

There's too big of a risk that he'll bust balls on the corporations like FDR did.

Like fillip, I'd love to see a viable third party rise to acceptance to knock the status quo on its bloated ass, but I'm not sure that I'll see it in my lifetime.

Anonymous said...

Fuzzflash sez...

Seems The Dems have finally twigged that there are votes in "decency".

"US House votes to outlaw CIA waterboarding


The Democratic-led US House of Representatives has voted to outlaw harsh interrogation methods that the CIA has used against suspected terrorists, such as simulated drowning.

On a 222-199 vote, the House approved a measure to require intelligence agents to comply with the Army Field Manual, which meets the Geneva Conventions on the treatment of war prisoners and prohibits torture.

The measure passed amid a congressional probe into the recent disclosure that the CIA destroyed videotapes of Al Qaeda suspects undergoing 'waterboarding', a simulated drowning.

Many countries, US law makers and human rights groups have accused the United States of torturing terror suspects since the September 11 attacks.

President George W Bush says the United States does not torture but the administration will not disclose what interrogation methods are used." From abc.com.au (online news just in)

Better late than never, I guess.

And Al Gore just told the rest of the world at the Bali Climate Summit to ignore the US (On Bush's pro Big Carbon position) because the current administration won't be around for much longer. Wonder how long it will take the MIC to call Gore unpatriotic?

Len, please forgive me for being off-topic. These are heady days.

Unknown said...

Fuzz, you can go "off topic" anytime you like. But I would hardly call your comments "off topic", in any case. And, of course, the back porch is always here. BTW --Vierotchka has been busy of late but sends her fond regards.

Al Gore just told the rest of the world at the Bali Climate Summit to ignore the US (On Bush's pro Big Carbon position) because the current administration won't be around for much longer. Wonder how long it will take the MIC to call Gore unpatriotic?

Good point. I am surprised they haven't already done do so. And, despite his sorry numbers and a wave of revulsion that now threatens to become a tsunami, I will still be surprised if Bush leaves the White House willingly. Bush is evil incarnate; he loves power for the harm it does; he needs the power for the strokes he gets from it. In Bush, the MIC found its perfect partner, puppet, poser and potentate.

Anonymous said...

ldcmI feel the dems are between a rock and a hard place.....if they indict any of Bushes cronies he has proved in the Libby case he will parden them or get them off.However if the dems can hold out and win the presidency and then go after Bushes cronies they will effectivly neuter Bushes pardon powers.

effrey Rice
Buffalo Grove ,Il

Unknown said...

ef said...

ldcmI feel the dems are between a rock and a hard place.....if they indict any of Bushes cronies he has proved in the Libby case he will parden them or get them off.

Getting them off is Larry Craig's job. But you make a good point. Having been so frustrated by the lack of Democratic spine, I have been hard pressed to attribute to them any strategy.