Friday, August 01, 2008

Rand Report Utterly Discredits Bush, Leaves McCain Without a Campaign

A new report by the conservative Rand Corporation calls the so-called 'War on Terrorism' fundamentally flawed, doomed to failure. The study pulls the rug from under John McCain who had promised not just more of the same old horse dung but perhaps another one hundred, another '10,000 years' of war against Iraq!

Saying that the US should 're-think' the so-called 'war on terrorism', the report claims that Bush failed to meet his own stated objectives. It was, the report concludes, the wrong approach to begin with.

Rand stopped short of repeating my charge: the 'war on terror' was just a cover for Bush's assumption of dictatorial powers which he accomplished with the Patriot Act and numerous 'signing statements', in effect, his de facto 'rule by decree'.
All terrorist groups eventually end. But how do they end? Answers to this question have enormous implications for dealing with al Qa'ida and suggest fundamentally rethinking post–September 11 US counter terrorism strategy.

The evidence since 1968 indicates that most groups have not ended due to military pressure but because (1) they joined the political process or (2) local police and intelligence agencies arrested or killed key members and that few groups achieved victory within this timeframe.

The ending of most terrorist groups requires a range of policy instruments, such as careful police and intelligence work, military force, political negotiations, and economic sanctions. Yet policymakers need to understand where to prioritize their efforts with limited resources and attention.

--Rand Corporation, US Should Rethink "War On Terrorism" Strategy to Deal with Resurgent Al Qaida
Perhaps because it is still, basically, a conservative think tank, a favorite of the Pentagon, Rand has not stated the obvious conclusion: Bush's 'war on terrorism' failed because Bush never intended that it succeed. It's a smokescreen, a pre-text by which his administration might justify the theft of Iraqi oil [See: OIL] and every Constitutional abuse put forward in the US Patriot Act. [See: Patriot Act Provision Declared Unconstitutional]

Free of conservative bias, the logical conclusions are obvious: the GOP has not only never succeeded waging 'wars on terrorism', terrorism has, in fact, gotten worse under every GOP regime since Ronald Reagan. [See:Terrorism is Worse Under GOP Regimes ] The Brookings Institution published FBI data that established the fact while Ronald Reagan waged his great 'war on terror', terrorist attacks against US interests TRIPLED!Terrorist acts against US interests were three time greater under Reagan than under Clinton. Bush is not the first GOP 'president' to have waged a failed war on terrorism.

To its credit, Rand concluded that the most effective strategies were those efforts made by local law enforcement and local intelligence organizations. Rand stated that US should abandon the use of the phrase "war on terrorism". McCain will be without a campaign slogan.

Rand stated that the US would continue to fail as long as US leaders fail to understand 'how terrorist groups end'. The study's lead author --Seth Jones --put it this way: "In most case, military force isn't the best instrument". I would go further: in every instance, FBI stats will support, the US use of the military has simply made terrorism worse, primarily because it plays into 'terrorist' hands.
The United States cannot conduct an effective long-term counter terrorism campaign against al Qaida or other terrorist groups without understanding how terrorist groups end," said Seth Jones, the study's lead author and a political scientist at RAND, a nonprofit research organization. "In most cases, military force isn't the best instrument.

--Seth Jones, US Should Rethink "War On Terrorism" Strategy to Deal with Resurgent Al Qaida

Rand studied 648 terrorist groups in operation from 1968 through 2006 from a database maintained by RAND and the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism. According to Rand, forty-three percent of all 'terrorist groups' ended with a 'political processes' --NOT military action, war, or violence of any sort.

Among the other findings, the study notes:

  • Religious terrorist groups take longer to eliminate than other groups. Since 1968, approximately 62 percent of all terrorist groups have ended, while only 32 percent of religious terrorist groups have done so.
  • No religious terrorist group has achieved victory since 1968.
  • Size is an important predictor of a groups' fate. Large groups of more than 10,000 members have been victorious more than 25 percent of the time, while victory is rare when groups are smaller than 1,000 members.
  • There is no statistical correlation between the duration of a terrorist group and ideological motivation, economic conditions, regime type or the breadth of terrorist goals.
  • Terrorist groups that become involved in an insurgency do not end easily. Nearly 50 percent of the time they end with a negotiated settlement with the government, 25 percent of the time they achieved victory and 19 percent of the time, military groups defeated them.
  • Terrorist groups from upper-income countries are much more likely to be left-wing or nationalistic, and much less likely to be motivated by religion.
See also: How the GOP Will Benefit From Impending Economic Collapse

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13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Early on this year, when I saw old man Bush endorsing John McCain on LIVE TV, it was then I realized America was gonna be stuck with another decade of indirect control by the Bush mafia.

They know most Americans cannot think properly, which is why America is in the state it is now.

99 said...

This really fries me. Some of knew from the git that this War on Terror was supremely ill-advised, could even see that it wasn't a genuine response to world events, but a power grab and a treasury-looting mechanism.

Lately, all the news has been mere reaffirmation of stuff we've known for way too long already.

Anonymous said...

A war on "terror" it has been widely seen as a hollow call for most critical thinking persons. For starters, how in the world could one's country be at war with a non-entity? Or, for that matter, if we do define them as terrorists, a known entity, still have merely individuals, at best small underground groups... so we "wage war" against individuals now?

Idiocy in the first degree, and it is peddled daily by our "press". If in fact we would have had a wit of sense or even a thread of moral and ethical fiber to our foreign policies in that region over the years, none of these current problems would be haunting us in the way they have, and will continue. A policy of honesty, respect and just a bit of commonsense over the years may have gone a long way.

One of the more obvious immoral examples of our ongoing ME policies, and widely known as fact...is that we have DISPLACED democratic governments in the region (Iran 1954). Another is that we have created and SUPPORTED terrorists and dictators in the region over the years, and to top it all off, we have (as other countries also have) ARMED that region to the teeth, working from both ends to the middle, for profit and or politics. It is shameful what we have done in the middle east, a criminal disgrace all the way around, carried out for decades.

These people (goppers & status quo) have their wires crossed, but it does not matter to McCain and his ilk...they will repeat the popular phrases with no regard to reality, they apparently just make up the story line as they go...certainly the media will not be calling them on much. Speaking of making up a storyline, today Senator Lieberman is proposing a resolution or whatever it is known as, stating that the "surge" has been a "success". All of this just after the revelations by the Obama camp that found out that most of the stabilizing factors were placed several months before the "surge" had begun...and this stabilization is due in part to monetary pay-offs to the insurgent Sunni, and some kind of time-lined cease fire street truce through another power-broker Shia leader...

All of this has been noted and vetted through the msm, and yet they allow the daily farce to be perpetuated by the Republican leadership and idealogs such as Lieberman, who apparently has no respect for working America, the working stiffs that will be picking up the tab for this entire fiasco called the war on "terror" which Lieberman referred to several times this afternoon. This is well past becoming tiresome, these people have been riding the system far to long as they continue to steer us in the all the wrong directions.

benmerc

Anonymous said...

I have 1 major objection, and 1 major note, to conclusions from the Rand report.

First, the "War on Terrorism" has not failed. It has always been fought in a way designed to increase terrorism, and succeeded in doing so. It is reasonable to conclude increasing terrorism and long-term war was, and remains, a key objective of the war planners.

Second, the statement that "No religious terrorist group has achieved victory since 1968." is true only if bin Laden's al-Queada is considered non-religious. His 2 prime objectives were achieved: drive the infidel armies out of the holy land (Saudi Arabia), and drive up the price of petroleum so that the Saudi monarchy could pay a large debt to the bin Laden family construction business. (This per Greg Palast, Armed Madhouse.)

Julia said...

Well, I'm certainly not surprised that terrorism is worse under the GOP. It's like they want to send the USA to war with every single country that looks at it funny. This is nuts. I hope Bush II goes down in history as the USA's worst president.

Manifesto Joe said...

The Neocons do not understand the concept of "blowback," which is actually a term the CIA came up with, I think. What the U.S. has been doing for decades, and more intensively for 7 years, has the effect of alienating and radicalizing large numbers of people in the Muslim world, and elsewhere as well. None of them, including McShame, get it, and I won't hold my breath waiting for that. I just hope that somehow events can turn in a way that will keep them from being able to steal a third presidential election in a row.

Len Hart said...

benmerc sez...

A war on "terror" it has been widely seen as a hollow call for most critical thinking persons. For starters, how in the world could one's country be at war with a non-entity?

It would seem that the GOP stinks when it comes to fighting 'real' wars. It prefers to battle non-entities or abstractions.

They still get to call the opposition 'traitors' when it is, in fact, the GOP that has 'jest hate[d] our freedom'. It was Bush who said 'The Constitution is just a goddamned piece of paper' --NOT terrorists. The enemy of US 'freedom' was and remains: GEORGE W. BUSH! NOT 'terrorists'. It was GEORGE W. BUSH who literally rescinded habeas corpus with a decree.

If in fact we would have had a wit of sense or even a thread of moral and ethical fiber to our foreign policies in that region over the years, none of these current problems would be haunting us in the way they have, and will continue. A policy of honesty, respect and just a bit of commonsense over the years may have gone a long way.

certainly ---US policy (GOP policy in particular) has either made terrorism worse or it has inspired it. In many instances, specific acts of 'terrorism' were planned, organized and perpetrated by the CIA and blamed on 'terrorists'. In other instances the CIA has waged oppressive 'secret' wars against indigenous populations which --quite naturally --have resulted in guerilla opposition. To be expected! The US, however, labels this LEGITIMATE opposition to US criminality as 'terrorist'.

I daresay the US is either the direct or indirect inspiration for 90 percent or more of world terrorism today. Certainly, the Brookings Study supports that. It is too bad that the study is not ongoing to include every US regime since WWII.

anonymous sez...

First, the "War on Terrorism" has not failed. It has always been fought in a way designed to increase terrorism, and succeeded in doing so. It is reasonable to conclude increasing terrorism and long-term war was, and remains, a key objective of the war planners.

You point is well-taken, but, in fact, I don't give a shit if Bush has been successful on behalf of his 'base' which OUGHT NOT be successful by any objective standard or within the greater paradigm.

I have many terms for any success Bush may have achieved on behalf of his crooked base and 'utter failure' is one of them. 'High treason' ( in applicable instances ) is another.

By my standards and --obviously ---those of Rand, the 'war on terrorism' is a failure. It is 'successful' if one is a psychopathic gopper, an MIC beneficiary of perpetual war or other enemies of the state.

In every other instance, I will often write of Bush's failures with the understanding that a PSYCHOPATHIC thirty percent of population still think him a hero. That's their problem and it proves Carl Jung correct when he posited that a large percentage of every population are --to use the vernacular --insane. It is a mistake, however, to concede the this psyhotic/psychopathic right wing has succeeded in any manner whatsoever when clearly their very premises and origins are, by my standards, utterly failed at the outset.

Bush was successful (for a short period of time) in rallying a shocked populace to his cause by exploiting terrorism. Those days are over.

Some more examples: Bush, like Ronald Reagan, has successful enriched the rich. But, clearly, that is 'success' ONLY within the right wing paradigm. When only one percent own as much if not more than the remaining 99 percent, the policy bringing that about is a failed one.

julia sez...

Well, I'm certainly not surprised that terrorism is worse under the GOP. It's like they want to send the USA to war with every single country that looks at it funny. This is nuts. I hope Bush II goes down in history as the USA's worst president.

GOP policy IS 'nuts'. The GOP has 'war' on the brain; if not 'real' wars, then wars on drugs, wars on porn, wars on crime, wars on this and wars on that! Enough already. The GOP represents a segment of the society that is certifiably nuts and it is time THEY stop dictating policy for the rest of us.

Len Hart said...

Manifesto Joe said...

The Neocons do not understand the concept of "blowback," which is actually a term the CIA came up with, I think.

The term gained currency with the publication of a book by Chalmers Johnson: BLOWBACK. As I recall, Johnson was a former CIA operative/agent. The term 'blowback' may have been in use inside the CIA to describe the often armed and deadly opposition that CIA crimes and interference has engendered in almost every corner of the globe.

Len Hart said...

More on BLOWBACK in the following excerpt from Chalmers Johnson:

The term "blowback," which officials of the Central Intelligence Agency first invented for their own internal use, is starting to circulate among students of international relations. It refers to the unintended consequences of policies that were kept secret from the American people. What the daily press reports as the malign acts of "terrorists" or "drug lords" or "rogue states" or "illegal arms merchants" often turn out to be blowback from earlier American operations.

Anonymous said...

" TERROR(IST) RE-VISITED ",

http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/393.html

" The Anthrax Attacks In Context "!
-----------------------------------

The Blowback-Mountain wich awaits the G.O.P.

G=GENERATIONS

O=OF

P=PERVERTS

Fascistoïd Neo-Cons, & a score of corrupted (socalled)Democrat politicians financially embedded in the M.I.C. and swimming in the profitable Corpo(e)ratic Meltpot, are getting exposed by the day or the hour thanks to The Extensialist Cowboy and many other truth-seeking-bloggers.

The TERROR-BLOWBACK-FALLOUT however, of THEYR high-treasonous CORPORACRAZY/MILITARY TERROR INVOKING ACTIONS, is falling on The U.S. Public, The " WE THE PEOPLE "!

See above brasscheck-video, it shows who the real terrorist are, and who the real victims are!

From out here in The Netherlands its very stunning/shocking to see and hear your Nation slide into fascism, and we do hope that in the end, you, " THE, WE THE PEOPLE " prove to be honest, strong and able enought to crush and throw those G.O.P. Neo-Con, Corrupted Democrat bastards into a thousand pieces like once J.F.K wanted to do with the C.I.A.

Maby to get there the U.S. has first to 'IMPLODE' economicly and financially, maby then this 'TERROR-HORROR' stops, I really hope you get the 'job' done.

Be Brave, Be Beautyfull.

Jacob.

Anonymous said...

"Terrorist groups that become involved in an insurgency do not end easily. Nearly 50 percent of the time they end with a negotiated settlement with the government, 25 percent of the time they achieved victory and 19 percent of the time, military groups defeated them" - rand


Great stats Len,

So, our government chooses to continue a policy that is at best, 75% incorrect according to 40 years worth of well studied articulate data. Some how I am not surprised, being that clutching to the 19% military strategy continues to stoke the military industrial complex and the propaganda machine that so readily exploits the emotionally gullible American public. But, since the development of the internet there has been several years of truth out (of course along with the bunk) with concerns to government, politics, economy and media. So much of the blame today rest in the presence of a lazy un-inquisitive amoral American psyche.

benmerc

Len Hart said...

benmerc sez...

So, our government chooses to continue a policy that is at best, 75% incorrect according to 40 years worth of well studied articulate data. Some how I am not surprised, being that clutching to the 19% military strategy continues to stoke the military industrial complex and the propaganda machine that so readily exploits the emotionally gullible American public.

Yep! For years, I've said that repeating ad nauseam a failed strategy in the expectation that one day a MIRACLE will occur is JUST PLAIN NUTS!!! Yet that's what McCain proposes. That's what the GOP is all about! Carl Jung was right.

The GOP is not a political party, it's a criminal conspiracy and, at the leadership level, a crime syndicate. It is also NUTS, certifiably psychotic.

Jacob sez...

From out here in The Netherlands its very stunning/shocking to see and hear your Nation slide into fascism, and we do hope that in the end, you, " THE, WE THE PEOPLE " prove to be honest, strong and able enought to crush and throw those G.O.P. Neo-Con, Corrupted Democrat bastards into a thousand pieces like once J.F.K wanted to do with the C.I.A.

Thanks for your good wishes Jacob and also my thanks to the good folk of the Netherlands. Since my college days, England became like a second home to me and more recently I have 'stalked' various locations on the Continent. I have no good excuse for not yet having explored your fair and eminently civilized nation but please know that I admire your art, your culture and your beer : ) Again --I thank you for your concern for a nation (the US) which has been the object of my scathing criticism but ONLY because I have loved it so.

Peace, my friend! Good people will triumph.

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